Thailand Health Workforce Planning

Building a resilient and sustainable health workforce is a critical factor in ensuring the effective delivery of Thailand’s Universal Health Coverage (UHC). However, rapid demographic transitions, the growing burden of non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and technological disruptions—combined with increasing pressures from both domestic and international labor markets—continue to challenge the country’s ability to maintain an adequate and well-distributed health workforce. These complex and interrelated drivers require analytical tools capable of capturing dynamic system behaviors and long-term uncertainties. This research project therefore aims to develop an integrated modeling framework that combines System Dynamics Modeling (SD) and Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) to support robust and sustainable workforce policy decision-making. The study will incorporate a retrospective analysis of demographic and health-related changes over the past 30 years using secondary data, alongside stakeholder consultations and group model-building to iteratively refine and validate the simulation models. The project will also explore multiple policy pathways through scenario analysis to assess potential impacts, trade-offs, and unintended consequences before policy implementation. The key deliverables include: 1. a comprehensive simulation platform that captures the structural factors influencing Thailand’s health workforce; 2. a set of policy experiments that illustrate feasible solutions under diverse future conditions; and 3. dissemination of the modeling tools and findings through academic and public communication channels to strengthen evidence-informed policy decision-making at both national and local levels. Ultimately, the project seeks to contribute to the design of a resilient, equitable, and sustainable health workforce system for Thailand.